Исследование стратегий

Рабочий лист по гипотезе стратегии

Сформулируйте явный вопрос, измеримое правило, эталон для сравнения, условие, при котором гипотеза не подтверждается, и дату разбора.

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INTERACTIVE WORKSHEET

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1. Observation

What repeated, measurable event prompted this question?

2. Mechanism

Why might the event persist long enough to study? What alternatives explain it?

3. Rules, before testing

Instrument and data source:

Signal and exact timestamp when it becomes known:

Entry and exit:

Risk-sizing formula and assumptions:

Fees, spread, slippage and funding:

Benchmark:

4. Failure conditions

What result would make you stop or reject the explanation? Which regime or cost shock should break it?

5. Protection from re-use

Record the parameter search. Set aside a chronological holdout before tuning. Note each time the holdout influenced a later decision.

6. Decision record

Strategy and data version / fingerprint:

Date prepared, before results:

Observed result and limitations:

Decision: reject / revise hypothesis / collect more evidence:

Next review date:

BEFORE YOU START

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What does this worksheet include?

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