Hyperliquid perps
| Signal | Horizon | Graded calls, 90d (n) | Hit rate, 90d | Always-long baseline (90d) | Median return, 90d | All time: n · rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market brief bias The 6-hourly and weekly bias (bullish, bearish), graded on BTC. Logged: 47 · neutral 11 · no entry price 0 · backfilled 30 | +4h | 36 | 38.9% 95% CI 25%–55% | 44.4% | -0.06% IQR -0.65% to +0.25% | 36 · 38.9% |
| +24h | 32 4 pending | 28.1% 95% CI 16%–45% | 62.5% | -0.61% IQR -1.26% to +0.17% | 32 · 28.1% | |
| +72h | 26 10 pending | n = 26 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 26 | |
| Radar confluence Telegram alerts when the Radar lenses line up bullish or bearish on a perp. Logged: 4 · neutral 1 · no entry price 0 · backfilled 0 | +4h | 3 | n = 3 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 3 |
| +24h | 1 2 pending | n = 1 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 1 | |
| +72h | 0 3 pending | n = 0 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 0 | |
| /setups watch zones Long-leaning stances (potential entry, watch); one call per symbol per 4-hour bar. Logged: 308 · neutral 308 · no entry price 0 · backfilled 189 | +4h | 0 | n = 0 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 0 |
| +24h | 0 | n = 0 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 0 | |
| +72h | 0 | n = 0 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 0 | |
| Whale consensus shifts Graded in the direction the tracked top traders moved net. Logged: 158 · neutral 0 · no entry price 0 · backfilled 125 | +4h | 156 2 pending | 52.6% 95% CI 45%–60% | 39.7% | +0.14% IQR -0.79% to +0.91% | 156 · 52.6% |
| +24h | 146 12 pending | 32.2% 95% CI 25%–40% | 37.7% | -0.67% IQR -2.36% to +0.89% | 146 · 32.2% | |
| +72h | 134 24 pending | 44.0% 95% CI 36%–52% | 30.6% | -0.43% IQR -3.32% to +1.80% | 134 · 44.0% | |
| Whale entry zones Price touching a cluster of top-trader entries: long clusters as support, short clusters as resistance. Logged: 65 · neutral 0 · no entry price 0 · backfilled 37 | +4h | 65 | 38.5% 95% CI 28%–51% | 35.4% | -0.02% IQR -0.42% to +0.46% | 65 · 38.5% |
| +24h | 57 8 pending | 42.1% 95% CI 30%–55% | 47.4% | -0.34% IQR -1.06% to +1.11% | 57 · 42.1% | |
| +72h | 46 19 pending | 45.7% 95% CI 32%–60% | 50.0% | -0.15% IQR -1.38% to +0.91% | 46 · 45.7% | |
| Liquidation-risk alerts Graded as price moving toward the at-risk position's liquidation. Logged: 25 · neutral 0 · no entry price 0 · backfilled 20 | +4h | 25 | n = 25 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 25 |
| +24h | 24 1 pending | n = 24 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 24 | |
| +72h | 23 2 pending | n = 23 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 23 | |
| Top-trader entries Opens, adds and flips by tracked traders, at their own 1h / 24h / 7d horizons. Moves the live worker missed are measured afterwards from the candle at the exact horizon. | +1h | 3028 | 42.4% 95% CI 41%–44% | 42.1% | +0.02% IQR -0.25% to +0.32% | 3028 · 42.4% |
| +24h | 2604 | 44.9% 95% CI 43%–47% | 53.8% | -0.25% IQR -1.61% to +1.28% | 2604 · 44.9% | |
| +7d | 848 | 49.2% 95% CI 46%–53% | 51.8% | -0.12% IQR -2.61% to +2.39% | 848 · 49.2% | |
| TA reports Directional /ta reads, identical cached evidence counted once, at 24h / 72h / 7d. | +24h | 18 | n = 18 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 18 |
| +72h | 18 | n = 18 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 18 | |
| +7d | 18 | n = 18 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 18 |
Solana tokens
| Signal | Horizon | Graded calls, 90d (n) | Hit rate, 90d | Seeds that fell ≥50% (90d) | Median return, 90d | All time: n · rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smart Money seed tokens Pump.fun tokens (24h gain above 200%) used to find wallets. Not buy calls: the share that fell 50% or more is the number to read. Logged: 27 · neutral 0 · no entry price 11 · backfilled 27 | +4h | 14 | n = 14 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 14 |
| +24h | 16 | n = 16 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 16 | |
| +72h | 16 | n = 16 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 16 | |
| Radar confluence (Solana tokens) Radar alerts on Solana tokens without a perp market. | +4h | 0 | n = 0 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 0 |
| +24h | 0 | n = 0 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 0 | |
| +72h | 0 | n = 0 · collecting rate shown from 30 | — | — | 0 |
Recent shared calls, graded at +24h
| Called | Signal | Asset | Direction | Price → +24h | Return in call direction | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 14:07 UTC | Whale zone | BTC | Up long-cluster | 83616.5 → 81622 | -2.39% | Miss |
| 2026-10-21 13:51 UTC | Whale consensus | BTC | Up surge | 83839 → 81436 | -2.87% | Miss |
| 2026-10-21 13:51 UTC | Whale consensus | ETH | Up surge | 2473.2 → 2398.3 | -3.03% | Miss |
| 2026-10-21 13:16 UTC | Whale zone | ZEC | Down short-cluster | 1326.85 → 1248 | +5.94% | Hit |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 UTC | Market brief | BTC | Up daily:leaning bullish | 83461 → 81725 | -2.08% | Miss |
| 2026-10-21 08:29 UTC | Whale zone | SOL | Down short-cluster | 106.695 → 103.99 | +2.54% | Hit |
| 2026-10-21 08:24 UTC | Whale zone | ETH | Down short-cluster | 2455.85 → 2411.9 | +1.79% | Hit |
| 2026-10-21 07:55 UTC | Whale zone | BTC | Down short-cluster | 83143.5 → 82219 | +1.11% | Hit |
| 2026-10-21 07:55 UTC | Whale consensus | ETH | Down surge | 2457.4 → 2429.3 | +1.14% | Hit |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 UTC | Market brief | BTC | Up daily:bullish | 82988 → 84041 | +1.27% | Hit |
| 2026-10-20 21:53 UTC | Whale consensus | ZEC | Down surge | 1251.6 → 1359.2 | -8.60% | Miss |
| 2026-10-20 19:51 UTC | Whale zone | BTC | Down short-cluster | 82591 → 84482 | -2.29% | Miss |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 UTC | Market brief | BTC | Up daily:leaning bullish | 82764 → 84645 | +2.27% | Hit |
| 2026-10-20 14:17 UTC | Whale consensus | HYPE | Down surge | 81.415 → 80.345 | +1.31% | Hit |
| 2026-10-20 14:11 UTC | Whale consensus | ETH | Down surge | 2449.8 → 2467.3 | -0.71% | Miss |
| 2026-10-20 14:03 UTC | Whale consensus | BTC | Down surge | 82426 → 83710 | -1.56% | Miss |
| 2026-10-20 13:52 UTC | Whale zone | ETH | Down short-cluster | 2397.65 → 2474.4 | -3.20% | Miss |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 UTC | Market brief | BTC | Down daily:bearish | 81499 → 83488 | -2.44% | Miss |
| 2026-10-20 10:01 UTC | Whale consensus | BTC | Down surge | 81484 → 83443 | -2.40% | Miss |
| 2026-10-20 07:51 UTC | Whale zone | BTC | Down short-cluster | 81545.5 → 83199 | -2.03% | Miss |
How we grade
- A hit means price moved in the call's direction by more than 0.1% on Hyperliquid perps or 2% on Solana tokens, roughly the round-trip cost. A flat result is a miss.
- Vanished counts as a miss. A delisted perp, or a token with no price and under $1,000 of liquidity a day after its horizon, is graded as a miss (−100% for a token). Our own data outages are retried instead.
- n under 30 shows no rate. A handful of calls can look brilliant by luck; the 95% interval (Wilson) shows how wide the uncertainty still is.
- Always-long baseline: the share of the same calls where simply buying would have cleared the same bar. A signal that does not beat it adds nothing over drift.
- Append-only log. The database rejects edits to a logged call. Calls from before this log started were taken from the stored alert tables, where each was frozen before its outcome, and are counted as backfilled.
- Neutral calls (a neutral brief, a Radar alignment breaking, a "wait" setup) are logged and counted but have no direction to grade.
- Personal signals (Radar, /setups, TA) appear only as totals. This page holds no account data.
This is research data, not financial advice. Past hit rates do not predict future results.