# Strategy hypothesis worksheet

## 1. Observation
What repeated, measurable event prompted this question?

## 2. Mechanism
Why might the event persist long enough to study? What alternatives explain it?

## 3. Rules, before testing
- Instrument and data source:
- Signal and exact timestamp when it becomes known:
- Entry and exit:
- Risk-sizing formula and assumptions:
- Fees, spread, slippage and funding:
- Benchmark:

## 4. Failure conditions
What result would make you stop or reject the explanation? Which regime or cost shock should break it?

## 5. Protection from re-use
Record the parameter search. Set aside a chronological holdout before tuning. Note each time the holdout influenced a later decision.

## 6. Decision record
- Strategy and data version / fingerprint:
- Date prepared, before results:
- Observed result and limitations:
- Decision: reject / revise hypothesis / collect more evidence:
- Next review date: